SimplyRFID has two business tracks: RFID for Logistics and RFID for Asset Tracking (Nox). In 2007, we saw a massive increase in our Asset Tracking over our Logistics business groups.
We looked at 'what is the difference'? The simple answer: Need. But, the longer answer is below...
RFID Logistics:
RFID for logistics is in a holding pattern. The DoD officially cut Unit Pack RFID from their requirements. However, this is to be expected. We're in a marathon and we've only gone the first 25% of it. The DoD dropped Unit Pack requirements because they could experiment at a much lower cost by sticking to Pallet/Case requirements for their evaluation/test phase. The DoD will continue to refine their use of RFID through 2009 and in 2010 they will likely re-institute Unit Pack RFID.
When we consider the new product adoption cycle, it looks like this for RFID Logistics:
1. Desire: In 2002 we had desire to adopt RFID.
2. Reliability: In April 2006, the first reliable Gen2 equipment became available.
3. People: The world is still gathering the skills for RFID. There is no NEED so people are not rushing to gain the appropriate skill.
4. Integration: Most mainstream back-end shipping systems treat RFID as a barcode. This is only 1/2 the solution and not much more compelling than barcodes. This must change for RFID to work.
5. Need: Companies are grasping the 'need' for RFID. They have not found a true need -- they are still associating their DESIRE with need.
6. Corporate Adoption: Companies have not accepted RFID / no level of adoption has occurred. Pricing is still absurd vs. benefit and corporations must negotiate costs.
7. SOP (Standard Operating Procedure): RFID is by no-means an SOP.
Predictions:
RFID for logistics has succeeded at step 2, working on 3 / 4.
In 2007, we refined the reliability of the Gen2 RFID systems and solidified a base to train the experts and begin work on Integration.
I expect in 2008 and 2009, we will work on step 4 (integration). Once integration is complete, companies will be able to identify a need because the infrastructure / support is there. 'RFID' in itself can not be needed. It's the process of using RFID that is needed.
In 2010, we will see NEED develop for the integrated solutions and companies will rapidly adopt RFID. This will last 2 years.
In 2012, corporations will adopt RFID.
In 2018, RFID will be SOP and used by most corporations, like the barcode.
These are just my guesses. But, I think they'll be close.
RFID Asset Tracking:

Companies have moved to Step 5 in Asset tracking. They not only DESIRE it -- but, they have a NEED.
The SimplyRFID Nox system creates an integration between RFID and Video and truly meets that need. Many corporations are in Phase 6 (Corporate Adoption). While the volumes of tags are much lower in Asset Tracking (vs. Logistics), the technology is there and companies are able to find tangible benefits. This availability and a reasonable cost is driving rapid adoption.
We expect Corporate Adoption will happen during 2008 - 2010 and Nox will become SOP by 2014.
-c

